Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 5
| Planetary K-index (Kp): 2
Solar Wind: 352 km/s at 21.0 protons/cm3, Bz is -3.0 nT
(Jul 01, 2022 at 2039 UT)
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [B4.2][0105Z 06/30] 24h hi [B4.2][0105Z 06/30]
What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 20 - 26 June 2022
Solar activity was at low levels through the period with C-class flare activity observed from 6 separate regions. The majority of the flare activity was observed from Region 3038 (N16, L=053, class/area Ehi/580 on 24 Jun) with 22 C-class flares observed during the period, the largest a C5.7 event at 20/0618 UTC. Region 3840 (S13, L=325, class/area Cso/160 on 24 Jun) contributed 8 C-class flares, the largest a C2.9/Sf at 22/0506 UTC. During the period, a pair of DSFs were observed that both had possible Earth-directed components. The first was an 18 degree filament, centered near N25W28, that lifted off at about 24/0756 UTC, viewed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery. The second was a 35 degree filament, centered near S53E09, that lifted off at about 26/0128 UTC, viewed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 24 Jun and high levels on 20-23 Jun and 25-26 Jun with a peak flux of 2,040 pfu observed at 25/1520 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 20-24 Jun due to positive polarity CH HSS influence (20-21 Jun) and negative polarity CH HSS influence (22-24 Jun). Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed on 25-26 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. During the period, solar wind speeds ranged from a low of near 400 km/s on 23 Jun to a high of about 700 km/s on 26 Jun. Total field remained below 15 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 12 nT. Phi angle was in a positive orientation on 20-21 Jun and rotated to a negative orientation on 22-26 Jun.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Solar Flares: C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) Geo-Disturbance: Quiet (A<20 and K<4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at very low levels no significant flaring activity. There are three numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc and two unnumbered bipolar regions near N18E70 and near S19E28, to the south of the newly numbered region NOAA 3045 (beta). NOAA 3040 (beta) has shown some slight development, but remained inactive. NOAA 3042 (beta) has shown further decay. NOAA 3043 and NOAA 3044 have decayed into plage regions. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at very low to low levels with possible C-class flaring.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 June - 23 July 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high levels on 27 Jun - 04 Jul and 15-23 Jul due to CH HSS influence. Low to moderate levels are expected on 05-14 Jul.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 27-29 Jun, 08-11, 14-16 and 22-23 Jul with active intervals likely on 27 and 29 Jun and 23 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS activity coupled with CME activity on 27 and 29 Jun from the 24 Jun and 26 Jun CMEs, respectively.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2021, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.