Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 3
| Planetary K-index (Kp): 1
Solar Wind: 301 km/s at 4.0 protons/cm3, Bz is -2.0 nT
(May 26, 2017 at 2229 UT)
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [B1.8][0133Z 05/26] 24h hi [B1.8][0133Z 05/26]
Background X-ray Level, Last Six Days
May 25 2017 :: A8.7
May 24 2017 :: A8.0
May 23 2017 :: A7.0
May 22 2017 :: A6.0
May 21 2017 :: A5.6
May 20 2017 :: A5.0
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 15 - 21 May 2017
Solar activity was very low throughout the reporting period. Region 2659 (N14, L=038, class/area=Dao/040 on 21 May 2017) was the most complex region; however, it has produced no significant flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to high levels, with a peak flux of 13,000 pfu at 21/1710 UTC. Normal levels were observed on 15 May and moderate levels were observed on 16-19 May. In response to a negative polarity CH HSS, high levels were observed on 20-21 May.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Quiet to active levels were observed on 15 May. Conditions decreased to quiet to unsettled levels on 16-17 May under nominal solar wind conditions. A SSBC produced quiet to active levels on 18 May and quiet to unsettled levels on 19 May. The subsequent onset of a negative polarity CH HSS, with peak observed winds between 700-750 km/s, produced unsettled to active conditions on 20 May and quiet to unsettled levels on 21 May.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC
Latest GOES 15 Image of the Sun
What is coming
Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:
On Z: Bz: nT
Bx: nT | By: nT | Total: nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.
This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind
Outlook: (valid from 1230UT, 26 May 2017 until 28 May 2017)
26 May 2017 10.7-cm Flux: 076 / Ap: 001
27 May 2017 10.7-cm Flux: 077 / Ap: 007
28 May 2017 10.7-cm Flux: 078 / Ap: 008
Solar Flares: Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) Geo-Disturbance: Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. Four B-class flares have been recorded produced by the decaying NOAA Active Region (AR) 2660 and by the developing Active Region NOAA 2659 (McIntosh Class: Dsi, Mag. Type: Beta). One returning NOAA AR is expected to appear at the east solar limb in the next 24 hours. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) have been observed. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES reached high levels. Solar protons have remained at background levels. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high chance of B-class flares and some probability of C-class flares.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 May - 17 June 2017
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to very high levels. Moderate levels are likely on 01-10 Jun and 12-15 Jun; high levels are likely on 22 May, 27-31 May, and 16-17 Jun; very high levels are likely on 23-26 May. Elevated levels of electrons are in response to multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to observe normal background levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. Active conditions are likely on 22 May with unsettled conditions likely on 23-24 May due to the waning effects of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are then likely to prevail from 25 May-09 Jun under a nominal solar wind regime. An increase to active conditions is likely on 10-11 Jun from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are again likely on 12-13 Jun. A SSBC is expected to cause unsettled conditions on 14 Jun. A subsequent negative polarity CH HSS is likely to cause active conditions on 15 Jun, G1 (Minor) conditions on 16 Jun, then active conditions as the CH HSS wanes on 17 Jun.
Be sure to check the Date shown in each photo - is it today's date?
(click to enlarge)
Check out these books on Radio Propagation:
+ The New Shortwave Propagation Handbook (Paperback) - by George Jacobs, Theodore J. Cohen, R. B. Rose. The NEW Shortwave Progagation Handbook may well be the only book you'll need on the subject of ionospheric propagation! It is a "must read" for Radio Amateurs, Shortwave Listeners, and radio communicators of any type who need to make the most productive use of the radio spectrum, regardless of the time of day, the season of the year, or the state of the sunspot cycle. It will become your ever-present companion a the operating table as you master the art of shortwave radio progagation.
+ How Radio Signals Work (Paperback) - by Jim Sinclair. This book provides a basic understanding of the way radio signals work-without becoming bogged down with the technicalities. It covers all kinds of radio signal types--including mobile communications, short-wave, satellite, and microwave. No detailed knowledge of electronics or mathematics is required. A-Z coverage of radio signals including satellites, mobile communications, and short-wave radio. No math or electronics background necessary.
+ Introduction to RF Propagation (Hardcover) - by John S. Seybold. This book provides readers with a solid understanding of the concepts involved in the propagation of electromagnetic waves and of the commonly used modeling techniques. While many books cover RF propagation, most are geared to cellular telephone systems and, therefore, are limited in scope. This title is comprehensive-it treats the growing number of wireless applications that range well beyond the mobile telecommunications industry, including radar and satellite communications.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2017, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.