Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 6
| Planetary K-index (Kp): 3
Solar Wind: 514 km/s at 8.0 protons/cm3, Bz is 0.0 nT
(Nov 30, 2020 at 1106 UT)
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [M4.4][1234Z 11/29] 24h hi [M4.4][1234Z 11/29]
What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 16 - 22 November 2020
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Region 2785 (S23, L=359, class/area, Hsx/060 on 22 Nov) produced an impulsive C3/Sf flare at 22/1731 UTC, the largest of the period, from the E limb. Shortly after, the region produced a 160 sfu tenflare at 22/1943 UTC. Multiple CME signatures were observed in coronagraph imagery that appear to have originated near the region; however, given the proximity to the limb they are not likely to have an Earth-directed component.
Region 2783 (S23, L=072, class/area, Hsx/080 on 21 Nov) was mostly stable through the week but did produce a C1/1f flare at 20/1703 UTC. Some coronal dimming was observed around the region between 21/1600-1800 UTC and may be associated with a slow-moving CME signature seen in LASCO SOHO/C2 imagery after 21/2236 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event is ongoing.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet levels were observed over 16-19 Nov. A period of sustained southward Bz caused unsettled levels on 20 Nov. The onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS produced active conditions on 21 Nov and peaked with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 22 Nov. Solar wind speeds increased to a peak between 600-650 km/s early on 22 Nov and gradually declined after. Total magnetic field strength peaked earlier with 12 nT observed at 21/2212 UTC and slowly declined to below 5 nT by the end of the reporting period. The Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT at 21/2212 UTC.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC
What is coming
Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:
On 2020 Nov 30 1114Z: Bz: 1.7 nT
Bx: -0.0 nT | By: -2.8 nT | Total: 3.3 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.
This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind
Outlook: (valid from 1230UT, 29 Nov 2020 until 01 Dec 2020)
29 Nov 2020 10.7-cm Flux: 111 / Ap: 004
30 Nov 2020 10.7-cm Flux: 113 / Ap: 005
01 Dec 2020 10.7-cm Flux: 113 / Ap: 003
Solar Flares: C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) Geo-Disturbance: Quiet (A<20 and K<4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2786 (Beta-Gamma) has been most active, producing multiple low- level C-class flares, including a C3.1 flare that peaked at 23:18 UT Nov 28. There are four further numbered active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2783 (Alpha), which is now close to rotating over the west solar limb, and NOAA AR 2787 (Alpha) remained quiet. Further spot development and flux emergence to the west of NOAA 2785 at S27W05 has been designated as a separate active region, numbered NOAA AR2788 (Alpha). Another simple (Alpha) unnumbered region has also emerged at S28W55. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA AR 2786. An isolated M-class flare also remains possible.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 November - 19 December 2020
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance of R1 (Minor) radio blackouts from 23 Nov to 06 Dec. Very low levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 23-28 Nov and normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to at quiet to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 19 Dec; active conditions are likely on 23 Nov, 25 Nov and 18 Dec; unsettled conditions are likely on 24 Nov, 26 Nov and 03-04 Dec. All increases in geomagnetic activity are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2018, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.